#26 - Aetherdrift
Featuring everything I've ever thought about the latest wacky race and how you can win more by doing less.
(Editor’s Note: Instead of a usual news roundup post today, we’ll be taking a deep dive into Aetherdrift limited. I’ll have an abbreviated post, including the weekly giveaway open to all subscribers, sometime over the next few days. Possibly even tomorrow.)
Lords of Limited released a bonus episode this week that, to me, typifies the problem with set reviews in the year of our lord 2025. They’re outdated, but any attempt to fix them also feels off, too.
What creators think people want—after years of conditioning from shows like Limited Resources—is a card-by-card analysis of a set. I disagree.
First, it’s great to have expert analysis of what these cards could do, but these are just guesses in the dark. Whether it’s LSV or Alex Nikolic or the LoL guys, they’re right more often than they’re wrong. When they get things wrong, it tends to be the things everyone gets wrong. But people take these as gospel (they’re even written into supplemental Arena draft software for some godforsaken reason) and that’s more harmful than helpful to most.
Second, Individual Card Rankings (ICRs) are a backdoor way to give you a broad feel for a set and often discussions emerge about how several cards work together. The problem is that they’re often tangents, small asides, things that get lost in the sauce. Sometimes, it feels like hosts are figuring things out in real time, so the overall message can even be contradictory.
Third, they’re very hard to digest as 4-6 hour long chunks of information, especially in audio form without cards to look at. I can’t tell you how many times my ADD brain wanders off and I have to use that 30 seconds back button. To their credit, a lot of pods now throw these up on YouTube, but even then… it’s a lot.
Fourth, there’s too much filler. As Ben and Ethan correctly note, there’s too much time debating whether a card is a C- or a D+ when really, that has no impact on where a card is taken. It’s kind of bad but you play it sometimes. Move it along.
Fifth, cards don’t perform in a vacuum, but they’re graded as if they were. “Buildaround” isn’t sufficient anymore because understanding archetypes is so important to limited. Most cards, to an extent, are buildarounds.
So how would I fix ICR shows?
I’d cut them altogether.
Malcolm Gladwell used to tell the story of Howard Moskowitz a lot. Hell, he did a whole TED Talk on him. I think it might have been a story from an early book. Anyway, Howard was a psychophysicist who started to work in food, specifically at Prego, where he wanted to give people a choice about their tomato sauce. So he made 45 different varieties and made people eat them. From the TED Talk:
GLADWELL: Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce he varied spaghetti sauce. And sure enough, if you sit down and you analyze these - all this data on spaghetti sauce, you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups. There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain. There are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy. And there are people who like it extra chunky. And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant because at the time, in the early 1980s, if you went to a supermarket you would not find extra chunky spaghetti sauce. And Prego turned to Howard and they said, are you telling me that one-third of Americans crave extra chunky spaghetti sauce and yet no one is servicing their needs? And he said yes.
(LAUGHTER)
GLADWELL: And Prego then went back and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country. And over the next 10 years, they made $600 million off their line of extra chunky sauces.
To me, it feels like for twenty years in Magic, we had plain sauce.
I would argue that we’re approaching something of a tipping point in limited content, from Lords of Limited trying a new scale to Limited Level Ups completely changing their set review process in DFT. There’s a vibe shift. We’re not stuck with the thin, ‘70s era tomato sauce anymore.
GLADWELL: People don't know what they want, right? As Howard loves to say, the mind knows not what the tongue wants.
GLADWELL: It's a mystery. And a critically important step in understanding our own desires and taste is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want deep down. If I asked all you, for example, in this room what you want in a coffee, you know what you would say? Every one of you would say I want a dark, rich, hearty roast. It's what people always say when you ask them what they want in a coffee. What do you like? Dark, rich, hearty roast.
GLADWELL: What percentage of you actually like a dark, rich, hearty roast? According to Howard, somewhere between 25 and 27 percent of you. Most of you like milky, weak coffee.
GLADWELL: But you will never, ever say to someone who asks you what you want that I want a milky, weak coffee.
I want a milky, weak coffee.
I’ll be honest: back in the CFB days, I’d draft with tab after tab of LSV’s set reviews open. Not sure if Seize the Storm is a card that is worth building around? Click on the Red cards tab, Ctrl+F, “Sei”, check the grade, move on. I didn’t need six hours of uncommons and commons. I needed 15 seconds on a specific card.
Some people want six hours of card reviews. Some people want the fly by version. Some people want to search a page of rankings while they tank their Arena pick.
I think if we’re being honest about preview content broadly, most people that are above beginner level need five things:
A quick description of each archetype
A quick description of new mechanics
Which cards look like they’re going to be overrated
Which cards work well in multiple archetypes (and are going to be contested)
Which cards thrive in specific archetypes
So, with the benefit of a little gameplay and 160,000 games worth of data from 17Lands.com users, I’m going to set out to do that today.
In This Issue:
⚫🟢Golgari
🔵🟢Simic
🔴🟢Gruul
⚪🟢Selesnya
🔵⚫Dimir
⚫🔴Rakdos
🔵🔴Izzet
⚫⚪Orzhov
🔵⚪Azorius
⚪🔴Boros
How Many Of X Should I Run?
Cards That People Are Mostly Wrong About
Overall Thoughts
Archetypes
⚫🟢Golgari (59.8% WR)
Top common per color: Migrating Ketradon, Engine Rat
Top uncommon: Thundering Broodwagon
Overview: Billed as reanimation, this archetype is really winning because it has massive creatures in green and cheap interaction to make sure it casts those big creatures. Of course, cards like Back on Track and Broodheart Engine are great to ensure we give those creatures a second life. They’re just not required.
When to move in: If I see any of the signpost cards after P1, I’m happy to change lanes immediately until people start respecting the archetype. Thundering Broodwagon has a steep cost, so people will be hesitant to move in on it. Don’t be one of them. It always cycles, there are ways to reanimate it, and having BBGG by turn six isn’t that difficult.
Trap Cards1: Elvish Refueler, Gas Guzzler, Risen Necroregent, Hour of Victory
The big thing that stands out to me: we’re not maxing our speed, friends. This deck is hoping to hang in there while it deploys midrange cards and avoids getting run over. People are jamming Refueler in any deck that will take it, but it truly belongs in dedicated Exhaust colors.
Underperforming Signposts: Wretched Doll
It’s a light list because most of these cards are spot on, but Wretched Doll isn’t a high pick, performing roughly as well as a middling Golgari common. In my experience, it’s tough to take time off to activate it when I really want to be spending mana. A fragile one toughness doesn’t help, either. I’m not saying this is a definite cut by any means, but you have to be able to take advantage of the Surveil with cards like Chitin Gravestalker (which I’m lower on than most) or multiple reanimation spells.
Underrated Cards2: Migrating Ketradon, Maximum Overdrive, Broken Wings, Fang-Druid Summoner, Wreckage Wickerfolk, Dredger's Insight, Beastrider Vanguard
Cards like Dredger’s Insight and Wickerfolk make sense because they’re basically signposts, but it’s nice that no other deck seems to want it (or Shefet Archfiend, for that matter). Ketradon will be in for a correction, but it’s a great sign if you’re still seeing them late in your pod.
Overdrive and Broken Wings speak to the deck’s need for cheapy interaction that comes from somewhere, with the format being a nice way to blow out double blocks. 2-for-1’s are one of the few ways some decks can answer your big beaters.
Fang-Druid Summoner is a card I’ve been high on, especially when you’ve picked up a Terri. Don’t forget it doubles as a reanimator when you don’t need to fetch your vanilla. Beastrider Vanguard is a great way for this deck to A) spend its mana without as much exhaust and B) fetch big, relevant bodies late.
Potential Splashes: White, Blue
Blue splashes are mostly for interaction (Spikeshell Harrier, Roadside Blowout) or Sab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied. I like Stock Up here, too, as you do accumulate some advantage but card draw is hard to come by and you’re a black deck that doesn’t love the loss of life from Risky Shortcut.
White really depends on your vehicle count, as Tune Up and Dune Drifter can be helpful as bonus reanimation. If you can cycle/discard/mill a Detention Chariot early, you’re in business. Here’s a 7-0 with a straight up Abzan build:
Note that this deck has duals, a Veloheart Bike, and two Insights to help with fixing. Be careful with your mana when there’s a lot of double pips required to cast your top end.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Maximum Overdrive, Intimidation Tactics, Engine Rat
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Afterburner Expert, Regal Imperiosaur, Demonic Junker, Gas Guzzler
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Agonasaur Rex, Debris Beetle, Lumbering Worldwagon, Cursecloth Wrappings, Quag Feast, Webstrike Elite, Aatchik, Emerald Radian, Gonti, Night Minister, District Mascot
Outlook: 📉
Golgari simply can’t sustain this and will regress to the mean. People will start taking Ketradons earlier than pick six. That said, it’ll be a top deck and a deck worth being in at most tables, but I’ve already started to see the Jeskai-filled packs flowing and made hay with them.
🔵🟢Simic (59.7% WR)
Top common per color: Rugged Highlands #2, Migrating Ketradon, Skystreak Engineer
Best uncommon: Ranger’s Refueler
Overview: We hope you like mana. Simic leans into Exhaust by generating a mana advantage with ramp like Skyserpent Seeker or tempo cards like Bounce Off. There’s no shortage of things to do in the late game, so get there, and get there fast. Fortunately, it seems like attacking in this set can be difficult and board states stall like my ‘87 Taurus GL. Your best cards provide so much advantage, it’s hard for anyone to get one over on you once you’re setup.
When to move in: Big signs to me are late Stampeding Scurryfoots or Skystreak Engineers, cards that are going to help bridge me but remain useful later. If people don’t get the utility of them, all the better for us. The payoffs will come, so hang tight.
Trap Cards: Diversion Unit, Fang Guardian, Defend the Rider, Terrian, World Tyrant, Jibbirik Omnivore, Hulldrifter
Unit seems off-plan and too weak of a body to help this deck develop the board it wants. Fang Guardian is Exhaust on a stick when you’d probably rather be Exhausting. Defend the Rider has just broadly underperformed for me when the pilot is irrelevant. Terri and Omnivore are curious; I suspect these decks want to splash a decent amount and care about Exhaust over Vanillaish stuff. This deck has no shortage of ways to get free cards, so Hulldrifter feels like a hat on a hat in my experience.
Underperforming Signposts: Guidelight Optimizer, Camera Launcher?
Simic was incredibly well-designed. Even Pit Automaton is doing work. I’m clutching at straws here, but if you wanted to pay for Exhaust with Optimizer or thought about Launcher as your +1 Exhaust, I’d stay away.
Underrated Cards: Rugged Highlands, Beastrider Vanguard, Bounce Off, Keen Buccaneer, Trip Up
What’s wild is that all of these cards have 60% or higher GIH WR. That’s how good Simic is, but Highlands is such a tip off that you really should be trying to splash red. Vanguard is nice when you run out of Exhaust costs to pay and need to re-up. Bounce Off words particularly well in a deck that can go down on cards to survive until the late game, where it’ll get that advantage back. The same is true, to a lesser extent, of Trip Up - this makes up a core part of your interaction strategy. Keen Buccaneer is useful when you’re not exactly trying to play land 9 or get to land 5.
Potential Splashes: Red
Temur exhaust is obviously a thing, but I think going full Temur is a mistake. Gruul slants aggressive which makes for poor splashing outside of a bomb like Sab-Sunen. Simic can definitely shore up some of its interaction deficiencies with cards like Lightning Strike and Broadside Barrage while still making room for Loot, the Pathfinder at the top end.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Spell Pierce, Spectral Interference - you’ll have mana up
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: District Mascot, Thopter Fabricator, Waxen Shapethief, Vnwxt, Verbose Host
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Lumbering Worldwagon, Agonasaur Rex, Possession Engine, Afterburner Expert, Mindspring Merfolk
Outlook: 📉
Again, a victim of its own success, expect these cards to be more contested moving forward. Fortunately, bridging into red more deeply and finding cards that can get you defensive speed other colors aren’t interested in can buoy your success in mostly Simic decks.
🔴🟢Gruul (58% WR)
Top common per color: Stampeding Scurryfoot, Thunderhead Gunner
Best uncommon: Greenbelt Guardian
Overview: Turn ‘em sideways, folks. While everyone is fiddling around with their little toys and trying to max their speed, you’re playing best-in-class bodies and bashing. There’s nothing nuanced about this, no Exhaust that you’re trying to build around. It’s beef.
When to move in: You’re the best Greenbelt Guardian deck by far, but most of the time you’ll start on a solid, aggressive rare like Regal Imperiosaur or Boommobile and then see a couple big bodies in the opposite color.
Trap Cards: Plow Through, Crash and Burn, Spire Mechcycle, Skycrash, Tyrox, Saurid Tyrant
Interestingly, I think this deck hates fighting, loves biting, which hurts Plow Through a little (just drafted too highly for where it actually comes in). Crash and Burn is probably too much mana when you’d rather be building your own board that outmuscles theirs. Spire Mechcycle is totally lost here, don’t know why 82.9% of people are playing it but don’t make their same mistake. Skycrash feels weird? Maybe you’d rather just have the flexibility of Broken Wings. Tyrox is feeling the pain of being an X/1, a bad statline in this set.
Underperforming Signposts: Redshift, Rocketeer Chief, Adrenaline Jockey, Pacesetter Paragon
Redshift is particularly bad but almost universally played. This is a trap. You just don’t want to have an Exhaust-focused Gruul decks, as your payoffs are significantly worse than Simic. They got all the hookups. You got all the bodies.
Underrated Cards: Thunderhead Gunner, Pedal to the Metal
Gunner is the surprise hit of red commons, but I suspect people will take longer to come around on the free rummager similar to Chimney Rabble in ONE. It just fails the eye test for too many people. Pedal isn’t a card I’m particularly high on, but it closes games combined with trample in unsatisfying ways.
Potential Splashes: Sab-Sunen, Loot
Don’t, for the love of God, splash white and try to do a cute vehicles/mounts thing. Samut, the Driving Force is a trap in my opinion. You just don’t care enough about speed to mess up your manabase.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Crash and Burn, if only because you'll have less of a cohesive curve and bombs demand answers
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Webstrike Elite, Redshift, Rocketeer Chief, Gastal Thrillroller,
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Draconautics Engineer, Howlsquad Heavy, Agonasaur Rex, Boommobile, Afterburner Expert, Regal Imperiosaur
Outlook: 📈
Okay, do I think Gruul goes to the moon from here? No. But this is a fairly meat-and-potatoes deck that leverages strong green and red creatures at rare and gets the best out of them. I think that’s a recipe for sustained success in DFT, even if you need to fall into it.
⚪🟢Selesnya (56.8% WR)
Top common per color: Ride’s End, Stampeding Scurryfoot
Best uncommon: Veteran Beastrider
Overview: What if I told you green creatures were good but the color needed some interaction? Would I sound like a broken record? I’m not saying that white is totally worthless here— a Gloryheath Lynx and a ham sandwich with 2 power will do work—but you’re fairly agnostic about Mounts and Vehicles. You’re actually going wide. Don’t believe me? While everyone was busy hyping up Lagorin, Soul of Alacria, it’s sitting almost 8% behind a little WG uncommon called Veteran Beastrider.
When to move in: You’re noticing green drying up but see white removal? Jokes aside, you can either open a bomb like Brightlass Gearhulk in Selesnya or take an early Perilous Snare, Guardian Sunmare, or Basri, Tomorrow’s Champion in white and then pick up a bounty of green cards to fill you in.
Trap Cards: Bulwark Ox, Greenbelt Guardian, Canyon Vaulter, Cloudspire Captain, Interface Ace, Brightfield Mustang, Daring Mechanic
Wild how many cards that care about Mounts and Vehicles are performing below average, right? It’s not even that these cards are being a little overdrafted and thus hurting the archetype overall; it’s 6th in total games played. Instead, the takeaway is that either
you need such a critical mass of these cards that if you fall short, your deck is bad or
these cards are bad
Right now, I believe it’s the latter until I see something different.
Underperforming Signposts: Lagorin, Soul of Alacria, District Mascot
Lagorin likely suffers from the fact that there are so few strong M/V’s you want to play early, which bums me out because I thought there would be an aggro deck here. Mascot isn’t AWFUL, but it performs about as well as Run Over or Terrian, which isn’t what you’re hoping for out a card people probably hoped was one of the better saddle rares in aggro.
Underrated Cards: Gallant Strike, Veteran Beastrider, Fang-Druid Summoner, Broadcast Rambler, Venomsac Lagac
Galliant Strike is your premium removal in this archetype, taking care of annoying things called “blockers.” Beastrider really pays you off in board stalls and is really performing. Fang-Druid Summoner speaks to the bread-and-butter nature of the deck. Rambler I suspect is doing okay (not a world beater, but better than a 9th pick) because it makes a body and we want to be flush with those. Lagac gets in and is a rare saddle creature you’d just play on rate but gets a bonus here or there.
Potential Splashes: Pass
I really don’t think you want to make things any more complicated than they need to be. Don’t mess up your curve with random duals. Don’t play ramp cards - that’s not what the deck is trying to do. I tried to find a Selesnya deck splashing in the 17Lands trophy list. There were three. They were in ranks Bronze and Silver.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Rise from the Wreck
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Voyager Glidecar, District Mascot, Bulwark Ox, Webstrike Elite, Spectacular Pileup, Afterburner Expert
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Perilous Snare, Agonasaur Rex, Basri, Tomorrow's Champion, Guardian Sunmare, Regal Imperiosaur, Caradora, Heart of Alacria, Lumbering Worldwagon,
Outlook: 📉
White seems pretty weak to me and this deck takes the biggest hit when green becomes more contested. Dark days ahead for Selesnya mages.
🔵⚫Dimir (56.1% WR)
Top common per color: Pactdoll Terror, Nimble Thopterist,
Best uncommon: Haunt the Network
Overview: I’m buying big on Dimir, the archetype that has the most to gain from the upcoming Green Wars. There’s so much value in your top cards and you can play a long game without having to worry too much about your opponents going tall on you. Smart interaction, a lot of cards other archetypes shy away from, and a killer top end as your signpost in Haunt.
When to move in: A late Haunt, sure, but I think you’re best off starting with a strong black card and waiting to see how contested green is going to be. This deck can also start with solid blue uncommons—Rangers’ Refueler, Spikeshell Harrier, and Transit Mage are all killers—and then pick up late Terrors to stitch it all together in Pack 1.
Trap Cards: Vnwxt, Verbose Host, Sabotage Strategist, Risen Necroregent, Cryptcaller Chariot, Gearseeker Serpent, Slick Imitator, Hour of Victory
Well, dang. In my Dimir Skeleton, I thought we’d really be going hard for Speed but it looks like more of a control/value game than pushing the tempo. Maybe that changes as the format settles out, but right now, it’s not looking great for Engines. Strategist suffers from not being an artifact (even if Gearseeker isn’t great) and fighting for an important slot. Chariot doesn’t seem like a card with a home, sadly.
Underperforming Signposts: Haunted Hellride, Wickerfolk Indomitable
If we’re not actively going after Speed, Hellride kind of sucks, no? I expect this to come up but it’s fairly mediocre so far. Wickerfolk felt like the kind of card you could grind out a long game and get a ton of Pactdoll triggers with, but what are you sacrificing? There are only so many Grim Baubles to go around.
Underrated Cards: Pactdoll, Wreckage Wickerfolk, Aether Syphon, Engine Rat, Nimble Thopterist, Bounce Off
Outside of Pactdoll, it’s little shitter time. Syphon as a draw engine/artifact in play is pretty cool and mill is probably a legit alt win condition if you can stabilize. Bounce Off is not getting the respect it deserves anywhere.
Potential Splashes: White
Esper artifacts, anyone? Voyage Home is sneakily the 6th best uncommon on 17Lands Dimir rankings and I buy it. Perfect type of card to splash. Guidelight Pathmaker is also a “makes sense” kind of card in that you need some top end in these decks but it can be hard to come by in just Dimir. Detention Chariot is probably a step too far, though.
I’ll also note that Swiftwater Cliffs (the Izzet dual) has the highest Game Played Win Rate of any card in Dimir - higher than Mu Yanling, Wind Rider, so it might be worth thinking about Grixis???
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: White splashes, broadly, Deathless Pilot, Intimidation Tactics, Mutant Surveyor given you’re going to be harder pressed to have super synergistic artifact decks
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Winter, Cursed Rider, Gas Guzzler, Quag Feast, Cursecloth Wrappings, Mendicant Core, Guidelight (STOP IT), Winter, Cursed Rider
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Marketback Walker, Thopter Fabricator, Possession Engine, Demonic Junker, and RIGHT AROUND IT: Mindspring Merfolk, Riverchurn Monument, Gonti, Night Minister
Outlook: 📈
Dimir is always tough for new pilots to get a handle for, but I really think this deck has legs and is being tamped down a little bit by people letting green flow for free.
INTERMISSION
We’re halfway through. If you’re counting at home, that’s four of the top five decks in green. I’m getting a little eepy, so we’re going to blow through the bottom here much faster. No cool graphics, but if you have questions about which cards to run, there’s always the comments section.
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⚫🔴Rakdos (55.9% WR)
Top common per color: Thunderhead Gunner, Pactdoll Terror
Best uncommon: Gastal Thrillseeker
Overview: It is what they said it is. Go fast, start your engines, get after their face. It’s so nice when an archetype pays off.
When to move in: I don’t want to start in Red, so ideally I have a black card or two when I see red interaction flowing late (Lightning Strike or Crash and Burn) and move in.
Trap Cards: Adrenaline Jockey, Pacesetter Paragon, Carrion Cruiser, Skycrash, Spire Mechcycle
Moreso a reflection of how highly they’re drafted vs how they perform, but these are not cards that go brr or start your engines.
Underperforming Signposts: Apocalypse Runner is fairly middling - it’s not a signal per se if you see it.
Underrated Cards: Pactdoll Terror, Thunderhead Gunner, Maximum Overdrive, Streaking Oilgorger, Mutant Surveyor, Grim Javelineer, Gilded Ghoda
You have a lot of cards people aren’t broadly interested in here, which is great! Haste, starting your engines, and pushing damage is all highly rewarded.
Potential Splashes: Stay away
It feels oddly mana intensive for Rakdos, so I’d try to keep it clean here. If you wind up with a few Thunderhead Gunners, you can always pitch away something, but you need a clean 9/8 split a lot of the time to ensure you can curve out and do damage when you need it. Amonkhet Raceway is the only exception to busting up your mana - giving haste is, again, very good.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Intimidation Tactics for all black decks, Jesus I’m sick of typing it
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Gas Guzzler, Gastal Thrillroller, Cryptcaller Chariot,
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Marketback Walker, Howlsquad Heavy, Burnout Bashtronaut, Draconautics Engineer, Far Fortune, End Boss, Cursecloth Wrappings, Boommobile, Gonti, Night Minister
Outlook: Flat
I just don’t think Rakdos has much to gain or lose - it is what it is in my opinion. If Dimir starts really taking off, there’s a small hit, but Red seems so available it likely balances out.
🔵🔴Izzet (55.5% WR)
Top common per color: Thunderhead Gunner, Flood the Engine
Best uncommon: Broadside Barrage
Overview: I think people are still finding their way because discard feels like a bonus rather than a focus. Monument to Endurance sits at the 10th best rare which feels about right. This is a tempo deck, first and foremost.
When to move in: the blue uncommons are flowing. Izzet is defined by being able to score in that uncommon slot so far, and there’s a lot of power there between Barrage, Stock Up, and Roadside Blowout. You know what else rates highly? The two discard payoffs that have bodies! Marauding Mako and Scrounging Skyray are great because your opponents will often trade down on mana out of paranoia.
Trap Cards: Monument to Endurance, Aether Syphon, Red removal???
Monument just isn’t performing as well as a second pick should, likely because a table can support a single Izzet drafter max IMO. This isn’t a good Syphon deck because you don’t hit max speed reliably and don’t need ways to get cards otherwise. Both Lightning Strike and Outpace Oblivion are NOT doing well on 17Lands, so maybe you really are just looking to play evasive little jerks and not stress too much about removal? I’m keeping an eye on this.
Underperforming Signposts: Magmakin Artillerist, Kickoff Celebrations
Discard for the sake of discard is not good.
Underrated Cards: Gunner, Pacesetter Paragon, Tyrox, Saurid Tyrant, Rocky Roads, Dynamite Diver, Spectral Interference
I can’t really make heads or tails of these. You sort it out.
Potential Splashes: Pass
White feels bad because you’re not really trying to do the artifacts thing as much as Azorius. Green’s exhaust stuff tends to want to come down early. Maybe URg exhaust is a thing but you have to crack it for me.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Gunner becomes Goated, play counters
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Fearless Swashbuckler, Burnout Bashtronaut, Gastal Thrillroller, Monument to Endurance, Vnwxt, Verbose Host, Marketback Walker, Waxen Shapethief, Lifecraft Engine
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Draconautics Engineer, Thopter Fabricator, Captain Howler, Sea Scourge, Boommobile, Howlsquad Heavy, Possession Engine, Mindspring Merfolk
Outlook: 📈
When less contested and built properly, Izzet is formidable as it has strong answers to big, slow threats while pressing your opponent in the air and by sea? I don’t know what the sea part means. But tempo feels good in a slow format.
⚫⚪Orzhov (55.4% WR)
Top common per color: Engine Rat, Ride's End
Best uncommon: Gloryheath Lynx
Overview: Shitter aggro lives here. Play a bunch of lil guys, go off. Nesting Bot actually shows up somewhere, and it’s pretty high if that tells you anything. The faster your speed, the better, because starting your engines actually matters here.
When to move in: You start with a Basri, Tomorrow’s Champion or strong white card and then Zahur, Glory's Past rolls past you a few picks later. This deck wants a lot of bodies and you can make up the core of it with a lot of cards your opponents just aren’t interested in.
Trap Cards: Detention Chariot, Air Response Unit
Not a ton here because it’s been a middling archetype, but Vehicles generally look bad in these builds. Expensive stuff is bad. Stay low to the ground.
Underperforming Signposts: Dune Drifter
I’m not NOT playing it, but if you’re following the map for Orzhov, you just don’t care a ton about getting back an Engine Rat. Or not enough to waste a high pick on it. It’s tough, because decks think they’re going to splash this card so you rarely table it, even when you should.
Underrated Cards: Streaking Oilgorger, Nesting Bot, Carrion Cruiser, Engine Rat, Avishkar Raceway, Mutant Surveyor, Lotusguard Disciple
Mostly cards that start your engines, give your deck a little reach, and make combat a pain in the ass for your opponents. Oilgorger looks really important to actually finish games and help you race.
Potential Splashes: Very rare
Since you’re built around achieving max speed, you should be hesitant around splashing.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Avoid this archetype in sealed! It has very specific needs.
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Guardian Sunmare, Gas Guzzler, Bulwark Ox, Voyager Glidecar, Bloodghast
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Perilous Snare, Skyseer's Chariot, Spectacular Pileup, Demonic Junker, Basri, Tomorrow's Champion
Outlook: 📈
This is an archetype that’s suffering from incorrect builds and people not prioritizing annoying little buddies. It’ll get better.
🔵⚪Azorius (54.1% WR)
Top common per color: Broadcast Rambler, Flood the Engine,
Best uncommon: Stock Up
Overview: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t know enough about racing to make a different metaphor here. UW wants to play defensive speed and hope its getting hooked up in the rare/uncommon slot, because white commons are really underperforming here. If you can get the game to go late, you’ve already won.
When to move in: You started in blue and Simic gets cut off.
Trap Cards: Sabotage Strategist, Aetherjacket, Roadside Assistance, Unswerving Sloth, Lotusguard Disciple, Tune Up, Walking Sarcophagus
Any card that says “Start Your Engines” should basically be ignored. A lot of dorky artifacts people are playing to up their count for Affinity are just bad, stop it. Tune Up has been brutal and is for other decks that can reliably bin their artifacts. Sloth isn’t how you win games.
Underperforming Signposts: Alacrian Armory, Interface Ace
Stop playing Armory right now. These decks really don’t want as many Vehicles as you’d think. They need actual bodies, real defenders, to make it to the late game. Tapping a creature to crew a Vehicle and then having that Vehicle get blown to shards is going to be game a lot of times.
Underrated Cards: Haunt the Network, Pactdoll Terror, Caelorna, Coral Tyrant, Voyager Quickwelder
Dismal Backwater and Night Market both rank really highly, which tells you THIS is the deck you want to be Esper in. Haunt and Terror both keep you alive, with Terror having the single highest Games Played Win Rate in Azorius(!!!). Caeloma has a GP WR right along Memory Guardian and Skyseer’s Chariot, which is worth keeping an eye on. Quickwelder can give you explosive turns.
Potential Splashes: Black
See above. Those little bits of lifegain really matter in this set.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Honestly, this deck is great when you have a stacked sealed pool. You can go late.
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Second Best Common3: Mendicant Core, Guidelight, Guardian Sunmare, Waxen Shapethief, Skyseer's Chariot, Bulwark Ox
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Perilous Snare, Thopter Fabricator, Voyager Glidecar, Mindspring Merfolk, Spectacular Pileup, Basri, Tomorrow's Champion, Possession Engine
Outlook: 📈
Esper builds are going to overperform when people get the memo. I’m bullish.
⚪🔴Boros (52.2% WR)
Top common per color: Thunderhead Gunner, Broadcast Rambler
Best uncommon: Gloryheath Lynx
Overview: Forget vehicle mayhem. Boros needs a ton of help at uncommon and rare and some beaters on the top end out of commons. Play creatures that have a decent rate without needing to be involved with crewing or saddling. Be prepared to play a longer game; your two drops get blanked too often because they can’t compete with a Wurm or a Dinosaur.
When to move in: All hope is lost? Cloudspire Coordinator is the best pure RW card and it has a win rate that would classify it as one of the worst Selesnya cards. And Selesnya isn’t even that good.
Trap Cards: Lightwheel Enhancements, Interface Ace, Dynamite Diver, Spotcycle Scouter, Guidelight Synergist, Alacrian Armory
Basically, stuff that says “vehicle or mount” that isn’t a vehicle or mount, and ESPECIALLY cards that are auras or artifacts that care about them.
Underperforming Signposts: Everything except Cloudspire Coordinator
Underrated Cards: Sundial, Dawn Tyrant, Dracosaur Auxiliary
As much as anything could be “underrated”, Sundial seems like a decent body that can blank 2/X’s and occasionally trade up while crewing well. It doesn’t die to Bauble? Top rated cards are expensive or Rare/Mythic in this deck, and Auxiliary helps shore up the top end similar to Gunner/Rambler.
Potential Splashes: Blue?
Listen, if you wind up in this archetype, it’s because you should be getting FED these cards and splashing should be the last thing on your mind. Ideally, blue can help you ramp to your more expensive stuff and you can be more of a Jeskai artifacts with red interaction and top end.
Cards I’d Rank Higher in Sealed: Any two drop - you need to go under to win with this.
Popular Rares Performing Worse than the Best Common: Bulwark Ox though I’d still play it, Explosive Getaway, Kolodin, Triumph Caster, Skyseer's Chariot, Lifecraft Engine
Rares Outperforming the Best Common: Howlsquad Heavy, Perilous Snare, Boommobile, Draconautics Engineer, Burnout Bashtronaut, Guardian Sunmare, Basri, Tomorrow's Champion, Gastal Thrillroller, Voyager Glidecar
You need rares. Lots of them.
Outlook: 📈
Nowhere to go but up, right?
How Many Of X Should I Run?
Vehicles. Roads. Raceways. There are a lot of niche things happening that have impacts on deck construction.
In general, I’m down on Vehicles and they need to have an ETB that creates cardboard before I’m generally interested. Fetch a land. Make a creature. Kill a thing. I want cards that generate questions. You also have a lot of people running maindeck answers to them that are cheap. Blanking those cards in their hand creates real value for you.
I think Roads are a little underrated right now, as it can be a grindy format so cashing in a land for a 1/1 is something. Trample is hard to come by, so even a chump block can buy you a turn vs a Ketradon. When games go long, each turn is a blessing.
There are two decks that want Raceways (Orzhov and Rakdos) and a possible third in Izzet so you can get free rummaging. My rule of thumb is that, unless I have a dual, I can’t run one. Now, if you’re now running a Gastal Thrillseeker, go for it. If you are short on ways to start your engines but have a lot of aggressive early creatures, go for it. Know your mana requirements, but don’t make life harder on yourself for incidental value. If you don’t have the payoffs for Max Speed, why care?
In terms of artifact hate, I’m looking for a max of a single copy. First, the best artifacts people play should already do the thing (accrue some value) on entering, so you’re kind of down half a card in a lot of circumstances. Against the best decks, like Green, you can wind up down a full card. That’s not something you can afford.
Cards That People Are Mostly Wrong About
Sure, they can have their moments in decks, but these are the rares and uncommons that people are drafting far too highly relative to the power that’s probably available in that pack:
Hazoret, Godseeker: Kind of an overrated enchantment for most of the game
Marketback Walker: I suspect people are just playing this incorrectly but that doesn’t mean I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Salvation Engine: Powerful card but in a bad color. Pick 3ish is good.
Valor's Flagship: Too expensive, cycling ability should have been pushed to 1W
Bulwark Ox: Just not as good as this effect usually is because it’s so hard to win early combat without building around this. Having to attack to get the counter is such a real drawback.
Gastal Thrillroller: Is kind of just a bad 4 damage spell and having to discard to get it back is a real cost.
Spectacular Pileup: Will trend up but is currently trying to pull up the WR of a bad color.
Voyager Glidecar: Vehicle that ETBs and does nothing? Nah.
Cryptcaller Chariot: Just not what black is trying to do.
Lifecraft Engine: Typal synergies aren’t there and a boost to other vehicles makes you do the bad thing which is play more vehicles. Also, no enter ability.
The Last Ride: I’m not interested in volunteering my life total.
Gas Guzzler: Board presence is so important and it’s so hard to make free things to sac to it that I kind of hate the ultimate on it.
Waxen Shapethief: Stop drafting this card.
Monument to Endurance: I’ve had games where this has been great and games where I could never catch up from taking the turn off to cast it. YMMV but it’s not worth a first or second pick IMO.
Vnwxt, Verbose Host: Blue remains bad at Engines, only passable as a Dimir card, but has to live. It’s not like you get a cool emblem.
Kolodin, Triumph Caster: Please, don’t make me play V/M’s.
Skyseer's Chariot: I think people see a cheap flyer and go for it but, well, everything I’ve already said applies.
Outpace Oblivion: Only worth playing in Rakdos but still a good card, just going a lil too high.
Oviya, Automech Artisan: Trap card for rookies.
Explosive Getaway: Will get better once people start building Boros correctly but until then, it’s a stay away early.
Lightning Strike: A fine card but is not a pull into red currently because in a format with long, long games, dedicating removal to dorks isn’t ideal.
Samut, the Driving Force: Trap card for rookies.
Road Rage: More small ball removal
Daretti, Rocketeer Engineer: Trap card for rookies.
Ketramose, the New Dawn: Trap card for pros.
Mimeoplasm, Revered One: I could see this coming up in win rate but I just don’t think it’s first pickable yet.
Redshift, Rocketeer Chief: Roughly average in Gruul decks, but people are blinded by the rare of it all.
Bloodghast: Do not draft Bloodghast. It’s bricked by everything and there’s very little sac value in the set.
Quick hit uncommons you think are better than they are: Cloudspire Captain, Canyon Vaulter, Risen Necroregent, Endrider Spikespitter, Spire Mechcycle, Adrenaline Jockey, Lagorin, Soul of Alacria
Overall Thoughts
I’m excited for Chicago. I don’t think there’s a truly dead archetype in the bunch outside of Boros, which might actually be a nice midrange deck in sealed. It’s an interesting format, even if some of the builds haven’t been fully fleshed out yet. It is, remember, still early days.
Have questions? Thoughts? Comments are always open. I’ll be back with a regular post tomorrow with a roundup of news etc.
Passing the turn,
Jake
Cards that are played over 50% of the time they’re drafted in an archetype, but fail to reach an average GIH WR.
Cards that are being drafted at pick 6 or later right now but are performing well
Rambler is a big outlier here
I've been working on and off on an article about art styles in Magic rooted in that very Gladwell TED talk. Listened to it dozens of times. Love the application here
great post