Lorwyn Eclipsed

Featuring everything I've ever thought about ECL before the Limited Championship Qualifier on Arena.

I have made a promise I regret, and it is writing this. A dumb, throwaway line on the everything site and suddenly I have a 4,000 word project? Fortunately, Sam is going to the very cool Innings festival in Arizona so I could slam coffee until it was done.

Still, I have to stop doing this to myself. And no, this is not the return of Mana Club. It’s me writing a check my ass had to cash or whatever the expression is.

This is a High Level Primer™ designed to help people who like playing competitive limited get as much of an advantage this weekend as possible. If you’re new, go check out Limited Resources! Nice guys over there. That’ll be more of your speed!

It’s All Best of One

For once, playing the most degenerate competitive limited format will pay dividends. There are no sideboards, no second chances, you just need to run hot. 7 wins gets you a draft two token. Win five games there and you’re going to the limited PT. It’s all best of one.

[Editor’s Note: You don’t go to the Limited PT after all! This just gets you to a bigger Arena event. Which feels weird? IRL qualifiers seem easier than having to face down everyone on a digital client. H/T to WingWingMTG for pointing this out]

This also means that 17Lands data is arguably more powerful than it’s been in a while. We’re one month out from ECL’s release on Arena and over 800,000 games in. That’s a meaningful sample size.

The problem is that most people internalize the lessons of a format in week one. Draft is, famously, self-correcting. If you stopped learning then, you’re what sharks eat for breakfast, lunch, and dinner on weekends like this.

What Was The Narrative, Again?

Elves rule. Goblins bad. Kithkin and Merfolk good. Elementals not as good but not Goblins. You were told some version of this. Please wipe this slate clean.

What We’ve Learned About Archetypes in the Last Two Weeks

Broadly, any deck can be good in the hands of a top player. Surprise! If you’re good, you can do pretty much anything in this format. The best players are doing the following things lately:

Drafting Merfolk more often: +2.6% more than bottom players

Drafting Elves more often: +4.7% more

Avoid non-core archetypes: 2.1% fewer WR/GU/WB/UB/RG decks

Splash better: only lose 1.6% WR when splashing

Win with Goblins: 12.8% better WR than bottom players

I hypothesized early on in the format on Reddit that Goblins takes real skill to win with and that’s coming true. It’s also lost meta share, so that opens up better cards that top players just won’t pass.

Let’s go through archetypes real quick:

GOLGARI

Overview: Elves are still very good, but it’s also lost the most WR as it gained meta share. Simply put, you are more likely to be contested and can trainwreck because there are so many quality cards available for the deck at uncommon. What this looks like in practice:

You take a Morant’s Loyalist out of an average Pack 1. You get passed an Eclipsed Elf pick 2 and think it’s on. You take an Assert Perfection pick 3 and then you never see another elf in Pack 1 outside of a single, sad Moonglove Extractor…

because the person passing to you went P1P1 Trystan’s Command, P2 Morcant’s Eyes, P3-8 anything that says elf.

Out of the 20 top Golgari cards on 17Lands, only Figure of Fable, Abigale, Eloquent First-Year, Emptiness, Bristlebane Battler, Bitterbloom Bearer, and Pitiless Fists aren’t Creature - Elf or don’t care about type. Two of those are mythics. You need a density of elves, and particularly dead elves, for the deck to function.

Elves require elves. Maralen, Gloom Ripper, High Perfect Morcant, Champions of the Perfect, Loyalist, etc, want a party. Elementals kind of don’t give a shit about what’s going on with other Elementals. Merfolk broadly just want to tap. Golgari is the most high maintenance archetype. ALSA tells the story:

Broadly, I’m not interested in fighting to be in elves anymore. I think it was overperforming early because bad players are notoriously afraid of self-mill. Once they Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Playing Bombs, the advantage went away quickly. Also tough when a few of your bombs are easily splashable; Trystan’s Command as a Murder with two Regrowth’s stapled onto it asks nothing of a goblin player.

Cards You’re Hoping For: Anything that says ELF and it’s not on the trap list. Seriously, this is a straightforward archetype. Don’t splash, though: you (should) self-mill a ton and can’t afford to lose your splash lands.

Surprises: Eclipsed Kithkin (fetches forest/changelings), Barbed Bloodletter/Scarblade’s Malice (tricks that are replacement level when people still play below replacement level cards), Rooftop Percher (fine to have 1 copy and can nix some of the graveyard shenanigans in the format), Requiting Hex (again, stock average card but games played % is falling).

Draft Strategy: I’m going to talk about rules of engagement first. A lot of content creators have extolled the virtues of picking bombs in this format. I don’t disagree that bombs are, in fact, good.

I value flexibility.

Bottom line is that I want to play as many of my early picks as possible while seeing which lane is going to open up for me. Some bombs are more flexible than others:

Noggle Robber might be a stretch, but our strongest early picks can set us up for long term success on a variety of paths, like learning a new language or selling pot in high school. You never know how you might apply them.

Thinking about flexibility matters in your middle picks more than anything, though. Liminal Hold, Blossombind, Merrow Skyswimmer, Gristle Glutton, Flaring Cinder, and Temporal Cleansing are cards that rate highly across a variety of decks. Potentially lower ceiling than other picks, but a solid floor if you have to pivot.

You’ll notice there aren’t a lot of Golgari cards here.

Frankly, there’s not a lot of flexibility in Elves. You’re kind of along for the ride. Fortunately, I’ve noticed a lot of Elf-induced panic where it seems like at the end of pack 2 and into pack 3, things start looking a lot better as people pivot into Kithkin when playables dry up. Seth Manfield rode it out at PT Richmond. Eduardo Sajgalik will be open to new colors as late as P2P8. Your mileage may vary.

When to move in: Uncommons like Eclipsed Elf, Morcant’s Loyalists, Moon-Vigil Adherents, and Morcant’s Eyes outperform a lot of rares in this archetype, so I’m keeping an eye out for them, but they fall short of the “stone bomb” threshold. Most pods aren’t going to give you a blinking “ELVES ARE OPEN” sign but you also can make do with less since the floor of your commons is so high.

Play notes: Identify if you care about self-mill (Ripper/Trystan, Lluwen, Morcant’s Eyes) or creature density (High Perfect Morcant, Champions of the Perfect, Moon-Vigil Adherents) because each deck has different needs. Like, Lys Alana Dignitary is not a good card if you can’t mill. Also consider going up to 43/45 cards; decking can be a real thing.

Adherents is a mythic uncommon but you cannot play it into damage/counter based removal and should wait for it to have 5 toughness before casting IMO. The only card you want that ends in -ling is Midnight Tilling. The common changeling cycle continues to perform worse and worse in this deck as BG scraps for playables.

Cards worth splashing: Maralen, Fae Ascendant and Doran, Besieged by Time. That’s about it. Don’t get cute.

Rares That Perform Worse Than The Best Common (Assert Perfection) But People Still Take Higher: Doran, Selfless Safewright, Formidable Speaker, Sapling Nursery, Twilight Diviner, Mutable Explorer, Overgrown Tomb, Temple Garden (??), Spry and Mighty, Tam, Mindful First-Year

A friendly reminder that rarity is for collectors, not players.

SELESNYA

Overview: Kithkin are the aggro archetype of the format and want to leverage curve to pressure the opponent’s life total before dropping something big to clean up. This deck goes taller than it goes wide and needs ways to finish the game because those aren’t self-evident.

For every Figure of Fable and Brigid, Clachan’s Heart you’ll play early, you also want a Kinbinding or Thoughtweft Imbuer to help you close. GW has the most Mythics at the top of its win rate chart by a mile which makes me nervous. I can’t count on getting an Eirdu or Curious Colossus or Aurora Awakener.

It has also been paying the aggro penalty lately. In any format, aggro gets worse the more people figure out how to build their decks properly. It has lost 1.2% overall winrate despite having a fairly stable meta share (only down 1%). Usually decks get better when they’re less contested. Not a great sign.

Cards You’re Hoping For: Good Kithkin, white mythics, and a pupu platter of uncommon interaction in Pyrrhic Strike/Pitiless Fists/Protective Response (WG is the best PR deck) to go along with Assert Perfection/Liminal Hold.

Surprises: Encumbered Reejerey (two drops are key), Shore Lurker (a 23rd card that can get you that last damage), Prismabasher/Pummeler for Hire (again, gotta pay attention to the top of that curve).

Draft strategy: Hope to see some white Mythics/Kinbinding and then pivot if Merfolk looks occupied. Taking that premium white removal is a great way to hedge until you have to pick a lane.

When to move in: I don’t want to bite on the first signal with Kithkin to be honest, even if I think that aggro is in a good place with experienced drafters durdling more than ever. Champion of the Clachan, for example, is actually one of the more mid cards in the archetype. Over the last two weeks, it’s been about as good as Evershrike’s Gift or Rooftop Percher. Champions of the Perfect is 2pp better. Second signal? Go for it in Pack 1.

Play notes: We need to be very judicious about using removal because there are so many cards that blank our board. I’m fine trading three drops if it means I can answer their Kulrath Zealot later. Early plays need stats for this reason and I’m not interested in ever casting a Great Forest Druid. All removal is not created equal: this is an aggro deck that does NOT want Keep Out.

This deck can also bluff some tricks and I would consider using full control at key junctures, particularly during early attacks. People see green white and don’t think about playing like it’s red deck wins, but you need every point of damage you can get.

Cards Worth Splashing: Doran is really about it. Avoid the temptation of Bre of Clan Stoutarm.

Rares That Perform Worse Than The Best Common (Mistmeadow Council) But People Still Take Higher: Champion, Bre, Selfless Safewright, Formidable Speaker, Wistfulness, Lluwen, Imperfect Naturalist, Sapling Nursery, Temple Garden, Rhys, the Evermore, Kirol, Attentive First-Year, Catharsis, Emptiness, Spry and Mighty, Winnowing, Tam.

MERFOLK

Overview: Merfolk are somewhat indifferent to each other. Yes, there is a lord in Deepchannel Duelist that does very well and yes, there is an Eclipsed merfolk that finds more merfolk. But think about it and there isn’t much else there. You can build very lean on the typal parts and still have a banger.

Part of that is convoking doesn’t care if you’re a fish or not. Wanderwine Farewell might give ya some tokens, but it’s not like that’s PER merfolk. I’ve had a number of drafts where I thought I was in elementals but gladly pivoted and still played my Rimekin Recluse and Tanufel Rimespeaker. Convoke makes getting those four mana payoffs preeeeeetty easy.

Being able to understand when your Merfolk deck isn’t a Merfolk deck is key because it’s one deck that has gained meta share, so you’re fighting more frequently for it. Luckily, you can pad that with outside the archetype cards.

Cards You’re Hoping For: Flitterwing Nuisance is a little underdrafted right now but sings here. You’re really hoping for a lot of the cards other decks can’t responsibly splash, though: Kinbinding, Colossus, Slumbering Walker, Disruptor of Currents, Eirdu, Mirrorform. Lots of bombs in this format with double pip considerations.

Surprises: Let’s go to a chart here so we can really see the level of movement on display here

Again, this deck has had a fun time getting scrappier.

Traps are less exciting because I can only dunk on Tam and common changelings so much. Cards that should be on your radar because they shouldn’t be on your radar: Hovel Hurler, Kithkeeper/Stratosoarer/Rime Chill, Thirst for Identity, Dawn-Blessed Pennant, Kirol, Morningtide’s Light. All cards with ~50% GP or higher that are replacement level or lower.

Hallowed Fountain (not worth spending a high pick on, you’re not signaling anything

Draft strategy: I honestly love some of the hybrid pipped rares to kick you off. Figure of Fable or Sanar, Innovative First-Year, or even Brigid (bodies, bodies, bodies) can be a ramp in early. Spec on a key uncommon and then pick up some Skyswimmers mid Pack 1 and you’re cooking.

When to move in: To dovetail on that, this is a Skyswimmer deck. If you don’t remember how good Preening Champion was, well, adjust the mental model. It enables your other best common in Unexpected Assistance by giving you the cardboard you crave. It’s the card that lets you compete. It’s a flare being shot out of a boat.

On the flip side, Pestered Wellguard and Meanders Guide are not the signals you’re looking for. Good players pass these and they’ve underperformed expectations. I would take a Rimespeaker over either at this point.

Play notes: Beware the autotapper and make thoughtful decisions when it comes to mana and convoking. It’s also the deck I’m most likely to hold a land for to potentially dump to Assistance. YMMV.

You can wind up with a lot of shitters that are critical later in the game. When you’re chipping in for three a turn with your swimmer and a Gravelgill Scoundrel, you need to buy yourself time and they do a great job of stopping damage chunks. Also, did you see Damage Chunks in the TMNT spoiler? Didn’t think I’d ever see actual vomit on a Magic card but then again I just made that up and it seemed plausible.

Anyway, I don’t broadly think you want to focus on going wide here and play Gallant Fowlknight, for example. Think about your merfolk tokens more like Llanowar Elves for your convoke stuff (so you don’t want to start chumping too early) that can be traded for life later.

Cards Worth Splashing: Ashling’s Command. End of list.

Rares That Perform Worse Than The Best Common (Swimmy) But People Still Take Higher: Glen Elendra Guardian, Deepway Navigator, Abigale, every mythic elemental not named Wistfulness, Harmonized Cresendo (trap!), Sunderflock, Winnowing, Oko (bad when he can’t be flipped), fucking TAM, Rhys, Kirol, Bre.

RAKDOS

Overview: What a difference a couple weeks make. We all, like rats, fled the Rakdos ship and top players commandeered it to… moderate success.

As much as I love hearing guys like Alex are having success with it (and he had a good chunk on goblins this week), I have to be convinced I’m the only player at the table interested in it because the deck flat out cannot support two drafters.

So that’s a big problem. Most of your haymakers in goblins have much less flexibility (you’re not playing Grub in Elves) and so your draft navigation is tough (more on this in a minute). There’s also the red of it all.

Design clearly tried something a little different here. Instead of the typical aggression, we have a weird combination of rummaging and impulse draw that play awkwardly together. When it comes to the latter, we’re getting these slow advantage engines at all rarities: Burning Curiosity and Kulrath Zealot at common, Sizzling Changeling at uncommon, and End-Blaze Epiphany/Shadow Urchin at rare.

These are secret Rakdos gold cards but people don’t build to play this game because red lacks the top end that pays it off! At rare, how many of these cards are you excited about?

In the late game, I’m interested in End-Blaze Ephiphany, Bloodline Bidding, Champion of the Weird, and Dawnhand Dissident if we’re stalled. Daydreamer is fine but conditional. The problem is that, outside of Champion, every other deck in these colors wants these cards, too. I’m not getting free Epiphanies late! We can play these grindy, attrition games, but when our opponents have real haymakers to bust a game open with, we can only impulse draw ourselves into so many outs.

Cards You’re Hoping For: Red mythics to give you flexibility. I’m far more likely to feel comfortable in gobbos when I start on a Spinerock Tyrant or Soul Immolation because they lack the lane force of having to commit early. Ephiphany, Gathering Stone, and Abigale are also fine pickups. From there, you’re hoping for a density of Boggart Mischiefs and Cursecrafters at uncommon. Not a given, but a nice treat.

Surprises: When you see a Grub P1P6! In reality, I want to focus on cards that play here without having a goblin type line because that’s how you win: not playing the bad cards. Filling out the middle of your deck with reasonable playables. Klamekin Gildweaver, Giantfall, Noggle Robber, Iron-Shield Elf are them. I wonder if there are any traps?

Basically, the deck is bad so we need to be tight: cut the damage enchantments, don’t waste removal on small stuff, and only dedicate slots to the typal stuff that matters.

Draft strategy: Start red with the hope of winding up in Elementals, a deck that can leverage your best early picks. Let someone else talk themselves into goblins. If no one does, you have your lane. The top cards really split down a color line, with black being your typal commitment outside of Command and Cursecrafter, the latter of which is just fine. Red is the way.

When to move in: See a bomb pick four or later, but don’t fully commit. Just because I see a Grub P1P4 doesn’t mean I’m now all in. I’ll still take a Kulrath Zealot or Tweeze over a more specific card like Gnarlbark Elm until that blip becomes a siren.

Play notes: Gristle Glutton feels like it has the biggest impact on how I play these matches. If I have a couple copies, I’m more likely to sandbag lands. Tweeze count is worth noting, too. Of course, there’s a tension here with Zealot, but broadly this deck has flood protection built in.

Big “play to your outs” and “life total as a resource” deck. Patience is truly a goblin’s virtue in ECL and if we’re in this deck, it’s because we have haymakers we need to get to. Also know when your Eclipsed Boggart needs to live or die. If you have a Command as a live draw, you may want it as your copy target. You may need it to double blight your Champion. If you’re drawing into Grub, you need it dead.

Don’t forget you can copy your Boggart Mischief with Command! Getting a second copy and blighting an existing token is a nice eight life swing.

Your main card advantage engines, in order of importance, are Grub, Sanar, Epiphany, Reaping Willow, and Gathering Stone. Willow is so damn good with a Glutton around plus, ya know, gets it back. This is how you grind.

Prioritize cheap removal that trades up. Sear, Bogslither’s Embrace, and Nameless Inversion are all gas and outperform Cinder Strike, which was a little surprising to me. Broadly, blighting creatures is bad and it feels bad.

Cards Worth Splashing: Trystan’s Command, Ashling’s Command. I’m not WILD about this but Flamekin count matters in terms of treasures and sometimes we’ll have a Noggle or Scuzzback Scrounger that make it worthwhile.

Rares That Perform Worse Than The Best Common (Bogslither’s Embrace) But People Still Take Higher: Goliath Daydreamer (worth running as a lightning rod but not a GREAT card in this deck), Blood Crypt, Squelcher, Collective Inferno

Our shortest list yet, which I think highlights how reliant you are on good rares.

ELEMENTALS

Honestly, I’m almost out of time and elementals are jazz: if you have to ask what it is, you’ll never know. And/or porn: you just know it when you see it.

I could write an entire primer the size of everything I just wrote and it wouldn’t be very good. There’s a LOT there to dig into.

Izzet is the only deck where splashing is essentially free - you pay a real win % penalty in every other archetype. You get the best execution of the Mythic elementals. Cards like Ashling’s Command, Sunderflock, and Soul Immolation punish the rare aggro decks. Puca’s Eye wheels. It’s just a really solid deck.

I would advise against some of the more aggressive vivid stuff: Glister Bairn, Squawkroaster, and Rime Chill aren’t it. Good vivid stuff gives you net cardboard: Shinestriker, Explosive Prodigy, Sanar. You also need permanents that add to your vividity: Liminal Hold is a great little splash, Blossombind is okay filler.

I like a copy or two of Gristle Glutton so I don’t flood/get run over by an Eclipsed Kithkin. Be responsible with your mana. A Scarecrow only gets you so far. None of this feels very helpful but hey, it’s 9 minutes until draft time.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

In the Play Booster Era™, it’s critical we understand the value of uncommons. People see interesting designs at rare and want to make them work, but save that for the Commander table, friend. I’ve shit on Tam all day, but casting a Wildvine Pummeler for 1G feels great. That’s the deck to go Tammertime on ‘em. There’s a lot of that in this set.

If we want to be able to pivot in 14 card packs where picks can be wasted on typal cards that don’t translate into our new deck, we have to be disciplined. This is a format where you have to eat your veggies. Like a real shark.

Passing the turn,

Jake

Bonus Seymour Etc

He has learned to eat his bone on a blanket instead of the new couch. We don’t deserve him.